Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 2.267060 2.393923 2.531372 2.692791 2.879131 3.090055 3.350797
2025-09-28 2.105208 2.258781 2.431570 2.643675 2.902028 3.213900 3.631943
2025-10-05 2.047965 2.226015 2.432704 2.696320 3.033494 3.466735 4.099283
2025-10-12 2.019140 2.219317 2.458148 2.773554 3.196228 3.774877 4.703864
2025-10-19 1.956677 2.165404 2.418705 2.760746 3.233515 3.910087 5.077445
2025-10-26 1.911306 2.128263 2.395661 2.764290 3.289144 4.074329 5.538306
2025-11-02 1.846811 2.063203 2.332127 2.707065 3.249799 4.082764 5.711338
2025-11-09 1.804562 2.023760 2.298845 2.687565 3.261642 4.171263 6.064248
2025-11-16 1.768413 1.990100 2.270786 2.672351 3.276636 4.264035 6.454663
2025-11-23 1.733923 1.956908 2.241336 2.652525 3.281348 4.337137 6.824254
2025-11-30 1.716583 1.944874 2.239009 2.670367 3.345084 4.523238 7.569666
2025-12-07 1.664395 1.885668 2.170728 2.588713 3.242350 4.383197 7.329948
2025-12-14 1.638059 1.860585 2.149173 2.576416 3.254896 4.472260 7.847899
2025-12-21 1.602438 1.822129 2.107862 2.532647 3.211798 4.445525 7.982783
2025-12-28 1.601238 1.828845 2.128326 2.581202 3.325871 4.752116 9.535341
2026-01-04 1.607480 1.845335 2.162530 2.651927 3.484540 5.191478 12.507543
2026-01-11 1.587367 1.825594 2.144839 2.641054 3.496162 5.296804 13.962887
2026-01-18 1.573073 1.813241 2.137025 2.644943 3.534477 5.473832 16.582497
2026-01-25 1.542515 1.778028 2.095541 2.593633 3.465994 5.368084 16.268727
2026-02-01 1.523716 1.758461 2.075953 2.576469 3.460789 5.426577 18.031999
2026-02-08 1.506963 1.741288 2.059270 2.563146 3.461668 5.500956 20.506543
2026-02-15 1.489676 1.723001 2.040459 2.545565 3.452962 5.547537 23.081877
2026-02-22 1.483427 1.719635 2.042963 2.562304 3.511570 5.793915 34.656071